Amanda Claypool, seeking employment at a fast-food eatery in Asheville, North Carolina, encountered an unforeseen and vexing challenge in early June: malfunctioning chatbot recruiters. Here are a few instances: The McDonald’s chatbot…
Survivorship bias is the tendency for us humans to regard success stories (or those who managed to survive in a natural selection process) as representative of a population. In fact, the percentage of those who are successful and survive is very small. Most of the others had already died, failed or could not survive through the struggle process.
However, most people actually think that the successful and the survivors (which are actually very small in number) are worthy of representing a population. Then these people make a kind of generalization that those who succeed and survive are natural, normal and therefore easy to imitate.
Such generalizations are again wrong. This because, the number of people who are successful and survive from the struggle is very small in percentage. Their achievements are not normal, not natural and also not easy to imitate.
However, because of the bias survivorship trap, most people think that those who survive are a normal reality and “a lot of them”.
Why is Survivorship Biased?
One of the reasons: because success stories and successes appear more frequently in the media with high frequency. Finally, the public considers the story of people who succeed and survive the threat of failure, as a “normal” and “natural thing”. Even though the number of those who failed was much more, but because it was never reported, it was considered never to have existed.
Another reason why survivorship can happen is because people who survive and succeed are easier to find. They still exist. His work is still on display. His gait is everywhere. Likewise, successful products will continue to be sold on supermarket shelves.
On the other hand, those who fail or do not survive, they may have disappeared from circulation. Failed products have already been withdrawn from the market. People who fail may have withdrawn and retreated from the crowd (because of shame). There are no traces of a failed business anymore, because all the offices and factories are closed.
The above conditions are probably why many media often report success stories and stories of those who survive in the struggle. Because the news sources are easier to find, compared to those that have failed and have not survived. Those who fail are usually not easy to find.
In addition, successful people will usually be happier if they get publications. Conversely, people who fail may be more reluctant to get news because they feel ashamed that they have failed. On the other hand, the media also usually prefer to publish success stories because they are considered more selling and inspiring, rather than reporting sad failure stories.
All of the above conditions give rise to the survivorship bias effect.
The Misconception About Success Rate
An example of this survivorship bias, for example, occurs in stories about business success. Stories of success and those who have survived the competition have sprung up in the media (both online and social media). Once again they often appear because they still survive, still exist. On the other hand, those who fail and do not survive, have disappeared from circulation, no longer exist.
This phenomenon then raises the survivorship bias: an assumption that those who succeed and survive are normal. Because success stories are constantly appearing, this success story is considered a “normal” thing.
This assumption then raises the perception that “success and survival from business struggles is easy”.
In fact it is not so. Complete statistical data shows that businesses that last more than 5 years only reach 50%. Only 30% can survive more than 10 years. The majority failed along the way, and then disappeared from the traces of civilization.
Another example that often appears in cases of survivorship bias is the story of dropping out of college that happened to business legends such as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, to Mark Zuckerberg. Because this story has been repeatedly disseminated in various media (both news media and social media), there is an assumption: it doesn’t matter if you drop out in college, because there are many great business figures like Gates et al who also chose to drop out.
Of course, such an assumption is an inaccurate assumption, because facts and more complete data show: 93% of successful entrepreneurs are undergraduate graduates.
Survivorship Bias Trap
Another comprehensive study involving millions of hundreds of thousands of respondents also shows graduating college with a bachelor’s degree is one of the most decisive indicators of a person’s future success. On the other hand, failing to attend college or dropping out during college will significantly reduce a person’s chances of success. This fact was revealed in a ground-breaking study on the correlation of success with education level, conducted by an economics team from Harvard University led by Professor Raj Chetty.
However, due to the survivorship bias trap, complete and valid data were ignored. People focus more on success stories of businessmen who dropped out (because they are often reported). And then confidently say that you will also be able to succeed even if you drop out of college. In fact, the number of college dropouts who fail is much more than doubled. However, because it is rarely reviewed and reported, this fact has disappeared from the memory of many people.
All the sample above carry a message: we must be more careful when listening to facts and data, so that we can look at the future more clearly.
The existence of social media has changed people’s lives more or less. There are many things that can be done on social media, starting from connecting distant acquaintances, looking for a partner, playing games, uploading photos, videos, status updates, and business. Even though someone is free to upload anything on their social media, there are actually things that shouldn’t be uploaded. These things are important things that if uploaded carelessly, can be used by irresponsible people.
1. Personal Issues
Everyone has problems with their life. It can be from family, spouse, work, school, and so on. Heavy or light, that’s only the person who experienced it can comment. Other people can’t judge people’s problems as heavy or light, Deciding to share personal problems with those closest to you is not a problem, but not on social media.
Social media is not the right place to vent about problems experienced in life. It’s not that the problems at hand can be solved, they just add new problems. Not everyone on social media can provide a solution. Some are actually happy and laugh to see us having problems. So it’s better to tell a trusted person than to make a status on social media.
2. Self Identity
The last thing is very important which also should not be uploaded carelessly to social media. It is about identity. There are several things related to personal identity ranging from identity cards, passports, driver’s licenses, vehicle registrations, and visas. This is not something you can upload to the internet.
By spreading personal information on social media, this can be used by bad people. You can be targeted by online loans. Who borrowed who, but the information used is our information. Unwanted things like this don’t want to happen to us. But there are so many people who carelessly upload a photo of themselves accompanied by an identity card.
3. False Information
When social media first appeared, the goal was to connect people who are separated in distance to become close. Nowadays, the function of social media is increasing and one of them is to share information. The question is, is the information is genuine or just a hoax?
Before posting information to social media, make sure first whether it is real or fake information. If we share false information, we have misled many people. If you find any information, check it first. If it’s original, only you can share it with many people. If it’s a hoax, don’t be a disseminator of hoax information and warn people who share the information.
4. Salary and Total Savings
You have seen people who post their money and savings on social media. I don’t know if there are people who see this as something good and can be used as motivation, but more people actually give oblique comments about posts about money and savings.
It is not appropriate to post a large salary and a large amount of savings. This can not only make people jealous and hate, but also can provoke criminal acts. Bad people know that you are a rich person by posting money and nominal in savings. Don’t be surprised if later on the road you are robbed, debit and credit cards are stolen, and become victims of fraud.
5. Residential Address
Housing is one crucial thing in life that should be taken care of properly. But now it seems people don’t really care about that. They easily post their home address on social media. This is tantamount to luring uninvited guests to come to the house.
Home addresses should not be shared publicly on social media. If you want to share information with distant friends or family, you can do it personally. You can use the private chat feature, direct message, or send a message via WhatsApp. This is much safer than you uploading it as a status.
6. Kids Photos
When there was no social media, parents took photos of their children and put them in frames. When social media appeared, parents who wanted to capture photos of their children, after being photographed, then uploaded them to social media.
Is that a good thing? Well, maybe according to some people. But are you aware that there are criminals called pedophiles? These pedophiles can take photos of your child without permission and use it for their benefit. Not to mention if you use a photo of a child to kidnap the child who will only be released after being given a ransom. But it seems that today’s parents have forgotten about it.
Children will be photographed as much as possible and uploaded to social media. Hope his son can become famous and bring money for his parents.
7. Parents Name
Another thing that should not be shown on social media is the name of the parents. Be it a short name or even a full name, don’t upload it to social media. If it’s for an important reason, you can take advantage of features on social media such as direct messages or chat. Although it is much safer if you contact via cellphone, of course.
Nowadays bad people are getting creative to commit criminal acts. The existence of the internet and social media makes it easier for these criminals to carry out their actions. Instead of getting into trouble, it’s better for us to take precautions first by not uploading personal information to social media.
8. Intimacy with your partner
Indeed, if you are with your partner and being intimate, the world feels like you belong together. Not a few of these happy couples post their intimacy on social media. Getting likes and positive comments from friends and followers will make you feel even happier.
But is it necessary to post all the intimacy with your partner on social media? If you really feel happy with your partner, let you feel it. There is no need for you to post it on social media. Which is happier, a real-life relationship with your partner or a thumbs up from a friend?
9. Home
Previously, it was explained that posting a residential address is not a wise thing because it can invite unwanted things. Whether it’s a living room, family room, room, toilet, and any other room, don’t post it on social media.
The obvious reason is for security. If you post your entire household, whether it’s a photo or a video, it makes it easier for bad people to come and explore your room. By viewing the video or photo, robbers can easily immediately take valuables and may hurt your family members.
10. Adult Content
Having a social media account does not mean that you are free to do anything on your social media. There are still rules that must be followed in order to be able to socialize safely and comfortably. You can find the rules regarding social media if you read the terms and conditions. There are many things that should not be posted, one of which is adult content.
Explicit content or adult content is strictly prohibited to be uploaded on social media. Whether it’s in the form of sound, images, or even video. Maybe you can upload it but it doesn’t take long for the content to be removed by the authorities. Don’t try to find trouble with posting adult content, keep in mind that in Indonesia there are laws that regulate this. Violators can be punished according to the provisions of the article.
In this era, we live in the society that stand a huge gap between generation x and z. While there is no doubt regarding culture and lifestyle difference between the two generation, there is a problem that many societies do not acknowledge.
Many believe that seniors are out of touch, irrelevant, old fashioned or ignorant. Nothing could be further from the truth. Seniors of all walks of life have wisdom gained simply from the number of days they have lived on the earth. And then, they started to share their wisdom to the younger people as if they always know the best and believe that they have more experience than younger one.
Hence, we conducted a survey to 100 participants in which there were 50 of generation z, and 50 of generation x, hoping to solve the issue and close the gap by providing a summary of interesting opinion and debate between two parties.
Generation Z’s Highlight:
Derick L (28 years old): “One time, I had a lunch break with my boss that are 20 years older than me. I was about to just have a casual talk with her, and all of sudden, she started to gave lecture to me about life. I mean, I wasn’t intend to get lectured and most important: why do they always think that they know everything?”
Miller D (30 years old): “Regarding this matter, I’ve actually have a personal experience that happened 6 years ago. My parents always wanted me to pursue career in a big company (I think for them, working in a big company is a huge achievement). However, my dream was always to become a business owner. For the first 3 years, I had listened to them since I need the money as capital. But in the same time, I was also building my side business. It is extremely tiring, working in 2 jobs, until there was a time that I decided to quit my job and focus on my side business. When I informed my parents about my decision, they were not happy about it. They told me that they had live longer than me and they know what is best for me. Short story, I still go against them, and here I am now, a business owner with a flexible working time with 7 figures income. In conclusion, it doesn’t mean that if someone older than you, they know better than you.”
Sarah M (27 years old): “I was known of bold decision, hard working, and ambitious. In my previous company, I had proven myself to lead a several project, meeting and able to close the deal with important clients. One day, I was trying my luck to get a new job title as a lead. Prior the interview, I remembered that it was an old lady HR and she told me that my age doesn’t qualify the job title yet. I confronted her by saying: “Age does not qualify a performance and capability, it would be nice if you can consider my previous award and achievement to proceed with the interview. If, I don’t pass the interview, then so be it. But, please don’t hold me to proceed further just because of my age”. Fortunately, after 2 weeks time, they gave me a shot to do the interview with the hiring leads while they can finally “fairly” tested and observed whether I am capable for the role, without seeing the age”. After a while, I’ve managed to get that job title and the HR were apologizing to me.”
Generation X’s Highlight:
Keith Bollman (54 years old): “One must be careful of generalizations. As an “older folk”, when I say something, I am right. This happens because if I am not sure, I keep my mouth shut. And one of my favorite quotes is from Winston Churchill – “When I was 16, I thought my parents knew nothing. At 21, I was surprised they had learned so much in 5 years.” When you bring your car to the shop for repairs, and it is not fixed correctly, you should realize the people fixing it are the same ones in your high school who could not read and got the worst marks. It’s like the joke, where on guy says, “You’re drunk. And the drunk say, “You’re right, but you’re stupid, and in the morning when I wake up, I’ll be sober. You’ll still be stupid. One must consider the intelligence of the parents/adults that are making the suggestions. Some people do not know better even though they are not adults.”
Steven Pinner (65 years old): “Good question. Now look at it from my point of view. I’m 65 years old. Is the 65-year-old version of me wiser and smarter than the 21-year-old version of me? definitely — by a couple of light years! I’m not joking or making that up. I’m speaking from real true-to-life experience. For me, it is so true that no one could actually possibly doubt it.
Angela Lenhard (62 years old): “Older people have a lot more life experience than younger people. They have already passed through the stages that the younger ones are going through, and so have their friends, so they usually know what is likely to happen in given situations or the bad things that might happen that a younger person wouldn’t know about. They have had more time to study, read, and learn from people and other sources so they just know more about almost everything. The older you get, the wiser you get. So if an older person disagrees with you on something, it would be wise of the younger people to listen to their arguments. Think carefully about it, and don’t discount it quickly. It would be lots more fun to be wrong at first but do the right thing than to make a mistake because you were too stubborn to listen to the advice of someone older.
Closing The Gap
People vary in all sorts of ways; in the nature of things, older people have (on average) more experience than younger ones because they are “older”. However, a lot of people of any age have not had multiple experiences, they’ve had the same experience many times.
And, certainly, older people have had more opportunity to learn things than younger people have. Again, they are older. But some people don’t take advantage of this opportunity.
In my experience, people who say things such as “listen to me because I am older than you” are likely to be in the group of elders who have had the same experience many times and taken limited opportunity to learn things.
I’ve had, in my life, the opportunity to work with two people who were a) Geniuses and b) Considerably older than I was. Neither of them ever said “listen to me because I am older”. Instead, they were smart enough to say “teach me so that I can learn more”. I’ve also known and studied with some other geniuses. They didn’t say this sort of thing either – they let it show. They demonstrated that they really did know a lot of things.
There may be some people who are knowledgeable and expert but so insecure that they need to fall back on lame arguments such as “listen to me because I am older”, so I can’t guarantee that people who use this argument are nincompoops. But a lot of them are.
Message for Generation X
Respect is earned, through capability, skills, wisdom, and attitude. And all of these are not determined by age. I do understand that older folks live longer than younger people, but that doesn’t measure how much knowledge, experience that a person have.
For example, Elon Musk created his video game at age 12, and founded the rocket company SpaceX at age 30 before he became the world #1 richest man now. So, if you sit together now with 30 years old Elon Musk, are you sure that you are qualified enough to lecture him just because you’re older?
Every person path and journey is different from others. Let’s put it in the illustration, Adam (35 years old), and Smith (60 years old). During his life, Adam spent time on exploring, reading knowledge, and hungry for growth. He had trial and error before finally established a successful business at 35 years old. Meanwhile, for the last 60 years, Smith has done minor things in his life, after his work done, he tend to watch movies and chilling. From this illustration, does Smith has more knowledge and experience compare to Adam just because he is older?
Always consider the source, not age.
Message for Generation Z
Elders are former young people who experienced mistakes and when they want to share it with others, it is for a good intention, so that you don’t have to repeat the same mistake and can learn from it.
Rather than treating it as “lecture”, try to think it in different ways of perspective: “secret tips”. That way, you’ll not taking it as it offend you due to your age, but it’s just a simple sharing for caring. Not everyone in any group of people act the same way. You will learn that as you get more experience.
How to be successful and survive in this modern era? It turns out that there are two classic ways that are thousands of years old, and effective to conquer the challenges of digital life in this modern era.
First of all, it is important to understand: in order to be successful in this modern era, we must have the power of focus and a long attention span.
How to Improve Power of Focus and Long Attention Span
Attention span means that we have the ability to engage in an action in depth and long attention. Without the power of focus and a long attention span, we will easily give up in the struggle to take action. Without excellent attention span skills, we will fail to take action consistently.
Then how do we grow our focus power and attention span, so that we can help us do things diligently and consistently?
1. Train Your Focus Muscle
We can grow it by exercising to strengthen our focus muscles and attention span (attention muscle).
Like human muscle work, focus and attention span have a similar work pattern. If it is never trained then its function will automatically weaken.
Unfortunately, during this time our focus muscles and attention span are actually trained by smartphone screens to only focus on things that are super short and shallow. Automatically the strength of our focus muscles and our attention span will also get shorter and weaker.
We have to reclaim the strength of our focus muscles and our attention span. We must strive to rebuild the strength of these muscles of focus and attention span. This is because, we understand how important they are in the journey of getting rich slowly.
2. Develop Habit of Reading Books
Another exercise is to cultivate the habit of reading books or long-form articles with relatively long pages (eg 50 pages).
Dozens of scientific studies have been carried out to track the positive effects of reading on the strengthening of our cognitive and thinking power. One of the findings is: the activity of reading books or long articles (or doing a deep reading process) really helps increase our focus strength and attention span.
The habit of reading books with thick pages that are quite long, indeed slowly trains our brains to be able to listen to an idea long and deep as well.
Other positive impacts of the habit of reading books found in a series of studies are: making us more creative, having stronger problem solving, broader and deeper insight, having a more open-minded mind, appreciating diversity more, and also making the perpetrators happier.
However, one particular impact related to focus strengthening exercises is that the habit of reading long books or articles does make our focus and attention stronger. The habit of reading will allow us to build the strength to pursue a key activity in a focused manner, and with a long attention span, so that the results will also be more optimal.
From the explanation above, we understand that the habit of reading long books or articles not only increases our insight, but there is another hidden impact that is also crucial. It will make it easier for us to build focus and a long attention span.
The key to making us a more diligent and consistent person when carrying out a key activity, regardless of the type of key activity. Therefore, if we really want to reclaim our power of focus and attention span, then we must slowly re-grow this habit of reading.
3. Meditation
In addition to the habit of reading books, there is another habit that also has a very powerful impact on strengthening our focus and attention span. This classic habit is called meditation.
Dozens of scientific studies have been conducted to track the impact of habitual meditation on strengthening focus, concentration and attention span of the perpetrators.
The findings are noteworthy: that the habit of meditation actually has a very positive impact on the process of expanding the power of focus, concentration power and span of control of the perpetrators. Not only that: scientific studies have also found the fact that this meditation also has a positive impact on strengthening resilience (or mental toughness and perseverance) for the practitioners.
The essence of meditation is that we sit cross-legged in a calm state, and then focus our thoughts on only one particular point. At the beginning, the center of attention should be directed to the breath movement that we do.
Breathing is done through the nose, while the mouth is closed. Focus your mind on moving your breath through your nose slowly. When his mind turns to think about various other things, redirect the focus of the mind to the flow of breath that we are doing. Feel the breath slowly flowing through your nose, inhale slowly, and then exhale slowly through your nose. Focus your mind on this slow flow of breath.
Doing this combination of meditation will not only make our focus power more bloom, but at the same time will strengthen our spiritual experience – a process that is very crucial to achieving true success.
The habit of doing this meditation can be done for just 3 minutes for the first time. Furthermore, if it is comfortable enough, the duration can be increased to 5 or 7 minutes, or even 15 minutes.
Bottom Line
Those are two powerful ways that we can live to strengthen our focus muscles and attention span. These two methods all come from ancient classical traditions.
Miraculously, these two ancient and classic habits are actually very powerful in this modern digital era. It’s like, in this digital era that is full of distractions, we are invited to return to work on things that are fundamental and basic.
In other words, to be successful and survive in this digital era which is said to be all modern, we must actually be able to re-enact ancient traditions that have lasted thousands of years.
A beautiful paradox then occurred: with this ancient tradition we will be able to conquer the life of the modern world brilliantly.
Since 1991, there has been an in-built tension in Russian-Ukrainian relations, because ‘the more Ukraine asserted its sovereignty, the more Russia questioned it, and vice versa’. The war impact cannot be understood without ‘looking at its long-term sources’ because to do so would be to tackle them ‘out of context and therefore to misinterpret them’.
In this article, you’ll going to how the Russia-Ukraine war has reshaped and impacted globally:
1. Rise of Export Prices of Goods
Even though war broke out in Russia and Ukraine, it does not mean that the other countries that not involved will live peacefully without any impact. Indeed, we can say that we are safe because we do not participate in the war, but the global economy is quite affected. All the countries which has export goods to Russia, are experiencing problems.
The value of exports made by the other countries to Russia is declining. Because of this war, Russia was subject to a trade embargo. A number of merchant ships were prohibited from entering Russia. All the merchant ships became unable to dock to Russia. By failing to export, the countries will lose an estimated huge income from rubber, animal fat and cocoa.
2. Slow Economic Recovery
The spread of the Corona virus to many countries in the world has not only caused problems in terms of health but also the economy. The economies of many countries in the world have experienced a decline due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Luckily there is already a vaccine so the world economy is slowly getting better. But the war between Russia and Ukraine has worsened the economic recovery.
The war that took place between Russia and Ukraine made economic growth slow down. The slowing down of economic recovery is not only happening in the two countries involved in the war but also other countries are also affected. All the countries that have economic relations with Russia is also affected.
3. Food Production Disruption
When there is a war, no matter whether it is near or far, its effects will surely spread to other countries. Moreover, the war that occurred between Russia and Ukraine, this clearly affects many things, not only in terms of economy, business, but also food. Both Russia and Ukraine are producing countries in the food sector.
Wheat and corn are food ingredients produced by the two countries. Ukraine produces 10% of wheat and 16% of maize globally. On the Russian side, the country produces 30% of wheat. The increasing level of conflict between the two countries has hampered the production of wheat and corn.
4. Foreign Companies Start Withdrawing From Russia
War is something that many countries don’t like. When there was a war going on, the country that started the attack in the first place was bound to receive a large amount of condemnation. The war that took place between Russia and Ukraine was started by Russia. This led many countries to take action against Russia’s actions.
Since waging war will only bring about losses, an effective way to fight Russia is to attack from an economic point of view. Quickly a number of foreign companies that were in Russia began to leave. In addition to opposing the war, this foreign company does not want if later the profits obtained by Russia will be used for war needs.
5. Oil Prices Rise
It is not without reason that oil prices are now soaring. Russia, which decided to attack Ukraine, was one of the reasons why oil prices rose. The oil here is not only fuel oil but also cooking oil. Both Russia and Ukraine are countries that produce large quantities of oil and sell it abroad.
Russia is the third largest oil producer in the world. They produce as much as 13% oil. After Russia attacked Ukraine, many countries boycotted Russia by not buying oil from them. Meanwhile, Ukraine is a sunflower oil exporter. This war made it difficult for Ukraine to export.
6. Wheat Prices Rise
Wheat can be processed into a variety of foods such as bread, oatmeal, noodles, pasta, cereal, pizza, and so on. It was explained in the previous point that Russia and Ukraine produce most of the world’s wheat. Russia produces 30% of the world’s wheat while Ukraine produces 10%.
The war that broke out between the two countries made it difficult for both countries to sell their wheat products. Many countries in Europe boycotted Russia by not buying Russian products, while Ukraine was unable to sell its wheat because its focus was shifted to the war. As long as the war continues, the stock of wheat will likely decrease and the price will rise.
7. Changes in Currency Exchange Rates
The war that broke out between Russia and Ukraine also had an impact on currency exchange. A number of currencies have experienced an increase in value and some have decreased. Because Russia started the attack first, this obviously made the value of the Russian currency, the Ruble, decrease.
Some go down, some go up. If the Ruble, which is the Russian currency, has decreased, the US Dollar has increased. This is because many people prefer to switch to Dollars due to the massive boycott of Russia. They prefer to make transactions and investments that are safer, namely Dollars.
8. Stock Market Down
The adverse effects of the wars fought by Russia and Ukraine also had an impact on the stock market. Not only the stock market in the warring country, but the whole world. This is considering that now that technology is more advanced, many countries have economic relations with other countries, it is clear that this incident will affect the stock market.
This war causes short-term market volatility. Volatility in the stock market can affect the portfolios of financial investors. Investors will rethink whether they want to invest or not in this time of crisis. Even crypto currency has also been affected by the Russia-Ukrainian war.
9. Cyberattack
Talking about war, people might think that the war that is being carried out is an exchange of weapons. Which country has the most powerful military and weapons, then that country wins. Today, war does not only occur on the battlefield but in the internet world, war can also occur. The popular term is cyberattack.
By doing cyberattack, a country can paralyze many things from the enemy country such as administration, economy, and information dissemination. This is done by the two sides at war, Russia and Ukraine. Each country tries to paralyze its enemy through cyber attacks.
10. Natural Gas Crisis
The war that took place between Russia and Ukraine really had a huge impact on other countries. A number of sectors experienced a crisis because of this war, one of which was gas. Russia is a large country that is very rich in natural resources, gas. Russia is the second largest natural gas producer as well as a major exporter.
It should be noted that Russia supplies about 40% of gas needs in Europe. Russia’s war was strongly opposed by many countries in Europe. Because they do not want to join the war, one way to attack Russia is from an economic perspective. Many countries that originally bought gas from Russia have decided not to buy it anymore. They prefer to buy gas from other countries.