Survivorship bias is the tendency for us humans to regard success stories (or those who managed to survive in a natural selection process) as representative of a population. In fact, the percentage of those who are successful and survive is very small. Most of the others had already died, failed or could not survive through the struggle process.
However, most people actually think that the successful and the survivors (which are actually very small in number) are worthy of representing a population. Then these people make a kind of generalization that those who succeed and survive are natural, normal and therefore easy to imitate.
Such generalizations are again wrong. This because, the number of people who are successful and survive from the struggle is very small in percentage. Their achievements are not normal, not natural and also not easy to imitate.
However, because of the bias survivorship trap, most people think that those who survive are a normal reality and “a lot of them”.
Why is Survivorship Biased?
One of the reasons: because success stories and successes appear more frequently in the media with high frequency. Finally, the public considers the story of people who succeed and survive the threat of failure, as a “normal” and “natural thing”. Even though the number of those who failed was much more, but because it was never reported, it was considered never to have existed.
Another reason why survivorship can happen is because people who survive and succeed are easier to find. They still exist. His work is still on display. His gait is everywhere. Likewise, successful products will continue to be sold on supermarket shelves.
On the other hand, those who fail or do not survive, they may have disappeared from circulation. Failed products have already been withdrawn from the market. People who fail may have withdrawn and retreated from the crowd (because of shame). There are no traces of a failed business anymore, because all the offices and factories are closed.
The above conditions are probably why many media often report success stories and stories of those who survive in the struggle. Because the news sources are easier to find, compared to those that have failed and have not survived. Those who fail are usually not easy to find.
In addition, successful people will usually be happier if they get publications. Conversely, people who fail may be more reluctant to get news because they feel ashamed that they have failed. On the other hand, the media also usually prefer to publish success stories because they are considered more selling and inspiring, rather than reporting sad failure stories.
All of the above conditions give rise to the survivorship bias effect.
The Misconception About Success Rate
An example of this survivorship bias, for example, occurs in stories about business success. Stories of success and those who have survived the competition have sprung up in the media (both online and social media). Once again they often appear because they still survive, still exist. On the other hand, those who fail and do not survive, have disappeared from circulation, no longer exist.
This phenomenon then raises the survivorship bias: an assumption that those who succeed and survive are normal. Because success stories are constantly appearing, this success story is considered a “normal” thing.
This assumption then raises the perception that “success and survival from business struggles is easy”.
In fact it is not so. Complete statistical data shows that businesses that last more than 5 years only reach 50%. Only 30% can survive more than 10 years. The majority failed along the way, and then disappeared from the traces of civilization.
Another example that often appears in cases of survivorship bias is the story of dropping out of college that happened to business legends such as Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, to Mark Zuckerberg. Because this story has been repeatedly disseminated in various media (both news media and social media), there is an assumption: it doesn’t matter if you drop out in college, because there are many great business figures like Gates et al who also chose to drop out.
Of course, such an assumption is an inaccurate assumption, because facts and more complete data show: 93% of successful entrepreneurs are undergraduate graduates.
Survivorship Bias Trap
Another comprehensive study involving millions of hundreds of thousands of respondents also shows graduating college with a bachelor’s degree is one of the most decisive indicators of a person’s future success. On the other hand, failing to attend college or dropping out during college will significantly reduce a person’s chances of success. This fact was revealed in a ground-breaking study on the correlation of success with education level, conducted by an economics team from Harvard University led by Professor Raj Chetty.
However, due to the survivorship bias trap, complete and valid data were ignored. People focus more on success stories of businessmen who dropped out (because they are often reported). And then confidently say that you will also be able to succeed even if you drop out of college. In fact, the number of college dropouts who fail is much more than doubled. However, because it is rarely reviewed and reported, this fact has disappeared from the memory of many people.
All the sample above carry a message: we must be more careful when listening to facts and data, so that we can look at the future more clearly.
